The Losing-Trick Count

This method of hand evaluation complements the normal point-count method but is much more accurate in spotting border-line game and slam bids. It works on the principle that the strength of a hand depends not just on how many points it has, but where those points are in relation to the length of the suits e.g. AK and Jx in two suits are 8 points, but AKJx are a better 8 points.

The system centres around two important numbers - 7 and 18.

1. An opening bid

This is a 7 losing trick count hand or better (6 or 5 etc.). To count losers, take each suit and count how many of the A K or Q are missing e.g. AQ9 has one loser, the King. You can have no more than 3 losers in a suit, but fewer with less than a 3-card suit e.g. K9 is one loser, J9 is two losers -

A Q 9 8 7 K 4 2 Q J 6 4 3

Losers 1 2 2 2 = 7 therefore open 1S

K Q 7 6 A 3 A Q 6 9 8 7 6

Losers 1 1 1 3 = 6, a better hand

2. The magic number - 18

You can usually infer partner's losing trick count quite quickly, if he has already passed, he has more than 7 losers. If he passes then jumps, he will have 8 losers i.e. almost an opening bid. A pass then a simple bid or raise is likely to show 9 losers. If partner bids then jumps, he will have a better than 7 loser hand, say 6 or even less if he goes straight to game.

To analyse the combined strength of the two hands, add your number of losing tricks to your inference of partner's losers. Then take this number away from 18 to find the maximum level you should play at. For example you hold :

K 9 8 5 K 6 5 A 8 7 6 - a 7 loser hand (S, H, D, C)

Partner opens 1C, you respond 1S, partner raises to 2S. He has a 7-loser hand as he has shown a minimum opener. Add his 7 to your 7 making 14, take away from 18 to find that you can go straight to 4S.

A K Q 8 7 K Q 9 A 6 3 9 - only a 4-loser hand

Partner passes, you open 1S, he jumps to 2NT showing an 8-loser hand (as he passed he has worse than 7-losers, but not much worse as he has now jumped). Add his assumed 8 to your 4 and take away from 18. So, you should be in 6 spades if you are not missing 2 aces (Blackwood).

Try this system in conjunction with the normal point-count method. It can highlight makeable games on 20 points or slams on a few more if the shape is right. It should not be used, however, on no-trump hands where, if you have a short suit, this will be a disadvantage if the defence can run several tricks in this suit before you can get in.